Oil traders doubt OPEC will boost output as planned in 2021

OPEC is unlikely to increase oil output as planned from January next year as it could mean adding more downside pressure to the already bearish and weak market, top traders said.

OPEC is due to taper their production cuts by 2 million barrels per day in January. OPEC and other major oil producers announced record oil cuts in March this year as fuel demand collapsed with half the world in some form of lockdown to stop the spread of COVID-19.

“I don’t think OPEC will increase production in January...If they do, the market will test them to the downside,” Pierre Andurand, founder and chief investment office at Andurand Capital, told the FT Global Commodities Summit.

Both Andurand and Trafigura’s co-head of oil Ben Luckock said they saw oil prices only recovering to $50 a barrel by the end of next year, from around the current $40.

“2022 is the earliest when prices can go higher,” Trafigura’s co-head of oil Ben Luckock said.

“I’m not upbeat about this market in the next couple of months. Floating storage is currently not beneficial as it used to be at the start of the crisis. You really cannot stretch it beyond Christmas...It is borderline economics.”

He added that a Joe Biden win in the U.S. presidential election, his policy changes could add even more downward pressure to prices as Venezuelan and Iranian output would likely come back.

The biggest weight on markets remains jet fuel. Refineries have been trying to find creative ways to blend the product but there is still an unavoidable oversupply and some plants will be forced to shut down.

Andurand said he did not see jet fuel demand returning to pre-pandemic levels before 2022 in the best case scenario, which assumes a viable vaccine by mid-next year.

Traders see a potential supply squeeze in the next few years due to underinvestment in new output. Andurand expects only a short period of high prices, if they come, as he sees global oil demand peaking by 2028-2029, earlier than some other executives have predicted.

He added that the pandemic had revealed the fragility of the global economic system and the impact from climate change could be even bigger.

“There won’t be a vaccine to fix climate change.”