The short-term growth in global oil and liquid fuels production will be primarily driven by the United States, Guyana, Canada, and Brazil, offsetting the voluntary cuts by OPEC+, forecasted the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The growth from non-OPEC+ producers could undermine the organization's efforts to support the market amid concerns about global demand growth and increasing supply.
OPEC+'s oil liquids production is expected to decrease by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, while output from non-member countries will grow by 1.4 million bpd, led by the United States, according to the EIA.
This surge in supply comes as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, agreed this month to extend voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million bpd in an attempt to bolster prices.
The United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana account for over 80% of the global supply growth according to the current EIA forecasts.
In 2025, OPEC+'s oil liquids production will increase by 900,000 bpd as production cuts expire, while output from non-OPEC+ countries will grow by another 1.1 million bpd, according to the EIA.
Global oil and liquid fuels supply was 101.8 million bpd in 2023 and is expected to increase by 400,000 bpd in 2024 and by 2 million bpd in 2025, according to the EIA.
As for the United States, its crude oil production reached 13.3 million barrels per day in 2023 and is expected to increase by 400,000 bpd in 2024 and 800,000 bpd in 2025.
