The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised upward its forecast for global oil demand in the last quarter of 2024, primarily due to colder winter conditions in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere, but it does not foresee supply shortages.
In its monthly oil market report, the IEA estimates that demand in the final three months of last year increased by 1.5 million barrels per day, which is 260,000 barrels more than it had anticipated in December.
The reasons were colder weather in key Northern Hemisphere regions, leading to higher heating usage in places like Canada, the northern and central United States, much of Europe, China, and Japan. Additionally, lower barrel prices stimulated consumption, and there was a rebound in petrochemical activity in the United States.
For the whole of 2024, the agency's experts have revised their calculations upward by 90,000 barrels per day, bringing the global demand to 102.9 million barrels per day.
Looking ahead to 2025, they expect an acceleration in consumption, with an increase of 1.05 million barrels (almost the figure anticipated in December) to reach 104 million barrels.
If their estimates for the last quarter of the past year are confirmed, the year-on-year progression for 2024 will settle at 940,000 barrels per day.
The IEA notes that new sanctions announced on January 10 by the United States against Russia—specifically targeting Gazprom Neft, Surgutneftegaz, 160 oil-carrying ships for Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, and companies providing them with insurance—will complicate transport logistics for these countries.
Nevertheless, it estimates that Russia will be able to continue exporting at prices below the caps set by the sanctions using what it calls "ghost tankers."
The agency, which represents the major energy consumers of the developed world, also highlights growing speculation about the possibility that the new Donald Trump Administration could impose even harsher sanctions on Iran, with some operators already indicating they are avoiding oil from both Iran and Russia.
The IEA emphasizes that if crude oil supply is significantly affected by adverse weather conditions at some wells or by these sanctions, reserves can be used to meet short-term needs.
Furthermore, it anticipates that non-OPEC+ producers will bring an additional 1.5 million barrels per day to the market in 2025, matching the increase seen last year.
Additionally, OPEC+ members (comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and partners like Russia) are expected to end their voluntary production cuts, and the IEA assumes they could ramp up production "if necessary."
In summary, it believes that these measures will cover "both potential supply disruptions and the anticipated growth in demand."
