IEA revises down 2024 oil consumption figures

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its 2024 oil consumption figures and demand expectations for 2025 due to uncertainty caused by U.S. tariff announcements.

In its monthly oil market report, the IEA stated that oil consumption grew by 830,000 barrels per day in 2024, rather than the 870,000 barrels forecasted in February.

This growth is expected to accelerate this year with an additional one million barrels per day, reaching 103.9 million barrels. This figure is also lower than the estimate made a month ago, which projected a 1.1 million barrels per day increase.

A significant portion of this growth is attributed to the decline in crude oil prices. North Sea Brent crude prices have fallen by $11 in the past eight weeks, stabilizing around $70 per barrel — close to the three-year low.

About 60% of the new global oil demand will come from Asia, particularly China, to support the petrochemical industry.

Conversely, Europe is expected to be the only major global region where oil demand is projected to decline.

The report's authors note that while the economic impact of U.S. tariffs announced by Donald Trump's administration is still limited, they "will clearly act as barriers to global trade and economic growth."

They particularly emphasize that the lack of clarity surrounding the implementation of these tariffs, with repeated reversals, has pushed the primary benchmark index for trade policy to its highest level in 40 years.

The IEA, representing most developed countries, diverges from the projections made by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In its monthly report released on Wednesday, OPEC maintained its projections despite uncertainties linked to Trump's policies.

The oil cartel maintains its forecast that oil demand will rise by 1.4% this year, reaching 105.2 million barrels per day.

Regarding supply, the IEA estimates that it could exceed demand by about 600,000 barrels per day. However, it warns that if OPEC+ (which includes major producers outside the cartel like Russia) does not curb production from those exceeding their targets, this surplus could increase by another 400,000 barrels.

IEA experts anticipate that oil supply this year will rise by 1.5 million barrels per day — double the increase seen in 2024 — provided OPEC+ extends its voluntary cuts beyond April, as originally agreed.

This 1.5 million-barrel increase will almost entirely come from non-OPEC+ countries. The United States is producing record volumes and will be the main contributor to global supply growth, followed by Canada, Brazil, and Guyana.