OPEC+ likely to proceed with planned May oil output hike

Four sources told Reuters that OPEC+ will likely stick to its plan to raise oil output for a second consecutive month in May amid steady oil prices and plans to force some members to reduce pumping to compensate for past overproduction.

OPEC+ is a group that includes OPEC and allied producers led by Russia, and pumps over 40% of the world's oil. The group is scheduled to raise output by 135,000 barrels per day in May.

That would be the second monthly increase under a plan to unwind some of the millions of barrels per day of cuts the group has had in place since 2022.

The group is simultaneously attempting to raise output targets for members that have been disciplined in meeting their previous targets, while pressuring other producers that have exceeded their targets to rein in output and pump below target for a time to compensate.

On March 20, the group said seven members will make additional monthly reductions from this month until June 2026. These cuts to make up for earlier pumping above agreed levels are, on paper, larger than the monthly production hikes.

The compensation cuts should hopefully make it easier for the group to continue with its plan for monthly hikes, one OPEC+ delegate said. Three others told Reuters that they expected the schedule for hikes to continue from May.

OPEC and Saudi Arabian and Russian authorities did not immediately reply to Reuters requests for comment.

OPEC+ has been cutting output by 5.85 million barrels per day, equal to about 5.7% of global supply. The group has agreed on a series of steps since 2022 to support the market.

An OPEC+ ministerial committee, with the power to recommend to the larger group changes in production policy, is scheduled to meet on April 5.