Russian exports from western ports would increase by 5%

Daily shipments of Russian crude oil from its western ports are expected to increase by about 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.97 million bpd in April compared to March, according to Reuters calculations based on data from three sources. The impact of seasonal maintenance at domestic refineries outweighs production cuts under an OPEC+ agreement.

According to the data, exports and transit of Urals crude, Kazakh KEBCO, and Siberian Light from Primorsk, Novorossiisk, and Ust-Luga will rise by about 5% in April compared to March.

Sources indicated that shipments will grow next month due to improved weather conditions and increased tanker availability.

In January, the United States imposed sanctions on 183 vessels involved in transporting Russian energy, complicating exports. In April, fleet availability is expected to improve as new non-sanctioned tankers have joined the fleet transporting Russian oil, operators said.

According to a preliminary plan, the volume of idle primary refining capacity at Russian refineries in April was expected to decrease by 0.7 million tons compared to March, reaching 2.9 million tons.

However, recent drone attacks on Russian refineries and the revision of the maintenance plan will likely lead to an increase in idle capacity next month, sources noted.

"The situation is constantly changing, the attacks are intense, so we can expect additional volumes even to the current plan," said a Russian oil trader.

According to another trader, reduced Russian oil supplies through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) system could also boost exports from Russia's western ports.

On March 19, an oil storage facility in the town of Kavkazskaya, in the Krasnodar region, was attacked, causing a major fire and the destruction of a transshipment point for the CPC system, which primarily handles Kazakhstan's oil exports.

Supplies to the CPC system were estimated at 130,000 tons per month or more. These volumes may be redirected to other ports, such as Novorossiisk, traders reported.

Russia plans to compensate for excess oil production under the OPEC+ agreement with production cuts of 25,000 bpd in March, 51,000 bpd in April, 76,000 bpd in May, and 102,000 bpd in June, according to a report from the OPEC oil export cartel.