New U.S. tariffs and an unexpected production increase from OPEC+ could trigger what the Bank of America called a “negative commodity demand shock”

Russia has ordered the Black Sea terminal handling Kazakhstan’s oil exports pumped by U.S. majors Chevron and Exxon Mobil to close two of its three moorings amid a standoff between Kazakhstan and OPEC+ over excess production

by 135,000 barrels per day in May.

That would be the second monthly increase under a plan to unwind some of the millions of barrels per day of cuts the group has had in place since 2022

The plan will represent monthly cuts of between 189,000 barrels per day and 435,000 bpd, according to a table on OPEC’s web site. The scheduled cuts last until June 2026

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reported on Wednesday that Kazakhstan led a significant increase in production in February by OPEC+, highlighting the challenge the group faces in meeting agreed production targets

OPEC+ pushed back the start of oil output rises by three months until April and extended the full unwinding of cuts by a year until the end of 2026 due to weak demand and booming production outside the group

Oil futures fell nearly 2% as investors awaited an imminent OPEC+ decision on production cuts, while a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stockpiles last week lent some support to prices

The OPEC pumped 26.51 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, up 180,000 bpd from October, the survey showed, with Libya again posting the largest increase

OPEC+ is discussing postponing its oil output hike due to start in January for the first quarter of 2025 and will hold further talks on this and other options ahead of its delayed policy meeting on Dec. 5

Saudi Arabia, Russia and Kazakhstan stressed the importance of full commitment to the voluntary oil production cuts agreed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies